Abstract:To analyze the effect of subgrade moisture variations on the mechanical response of pavement structures under environmental conditions in rainy regions, a prediction model for the dynamic resilient modulus (MR) considering stress levels and matric suction was established. A numerical model of the subgrade and pavement structure was developed using COMSOL software. The MR was then embedded into the constitutive relationship of the numerical model through the application of a coefficient-type partial differential equation. The applicability of the model was verified by comparing measured data with results calculated using specification methods. The temporal variation patterns of pavement deflection and fatigue life under different conditions of rainfall and groundwater tables were further analyzed. The results showed that the resilient modulus decreased with increasing moisture content, while the deflection value increased. When the saturation of subgrade soil increased from 79% to 90%, the maximum pavement deflection increased by 126 μm. Additionally, when the groundwater table rose from -5 m to 0 m, the maximum surface deflection increased by 62%. Both the fatigue life calculation methods specified in Chinese and American pavement design specifications yielded highly accurate results for asphalt pavement surface layers, with a maximum error of only 2%. As the groundwater table increased, the maximum tensile stress at the bottom of the surface layer increased linearly, while the fatigue life decreased. When the groundwater table rose by 5 meters, the tensile strain at the bottom of the surface layer increased by 28.35%, and the fatigue life of the asphalt pavement layer declined by 62.8%. These findings provide a theoretical basis for road structure design and long-term performance assurance in rainy regions.