Abstract:To enhance urban flood protection and resilience to floods, and to advance the new strategyof human-centered urbanization, Weifang's urban area was selected as the study area. The CAfloodmodel, based on cellular automata, was employed to derive inundation depth data. Using data miningand similarity analysis, urban loss rate was referenced and applied to establish an inundation depth-lossrate function for the study area. Based on this function, an urban flood resilience model was developed,which was then used to calculate the flood resilience index distribution in Weifang's urban areaunder rainfalls with 5, 50, 100 and 200-year return periods. Additionally, the temporal and spatialtrends of flood resilience in Weifang's urban area were analyzed under three different land use scenariosfor 2012, 2017 and 2022, revealing the relationship between urban evolution and regional flood resilience.The results indicated that the flood resilience of the Weifang's urban area generally decreasedwith an increase in return periods. The most significant decreases were primarily observed in the central urban area, streets, and the eastern development zone, which have a higher proportion of manmadesurfaces, as well as in the flat and low-lying areas around rivers. Spatially, the declining trendexpanded outward from the central urban area. Moreover, as urbanization intensifies, the average resilienceindex in each sub-district of the study area decreased to varying extents. Among these, the C7hilly area consistently showed a higher level of resilience, while the C4 high-tech development zoneexhibited lower resilience under various simulation scenarios. The higher the degree of urbanization,the greater the decrease in the average resilience index of sub-districts after the same return period rainfalls.The research results provide scientific support for Weifang to address the growing flood risk andto implement strategies to enhance urban flood resilience in the future.
