极端降水事件下城市道路网络级联失效研究∗
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江苏大学土木工程与力学学院,江苏 镇江 212013

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U491;P426.615

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Study on Cascading Failures of Urban Road Networks under Extreme Precipitation Events
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Faculty of Civil Engineering and Mechanics , Jiangsu University , Zhenjiang 212013 , China

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    摘要:

    频发的极端降水事件给城市带来严重危害,道路网络作为城市交通体系的基础,是灾害疏散和灾后恢复的关键。道路网络中部分节点或路段受降水影响失效中断后会引发一系列连锁效应,间接加剧城市居民生命财产损失。为了准确评估极端降水事件下城市道路网络级联失效及其影响,研究在将道路网络交通态势和极端降水情景结合的基础上,进一步考虑级联失效这一连锁效应。研究基于早晚高峰期、平峰期交通态势数据及交通、医疗和教育基础设施POI 数据,借助“负荷-容量”模型分析极端降水事件下城市道路网络级联失效演变过程及结果。结果表明,早高峰期间100 年重现期极端降水下南京市鼓楼区有292 条道路失效中断,在级联失效模拟下,88 条路段呈现严重拥堵状态,相比交通与医疗基础设施,教育基础设施服务范围受极端降水影响最大,此外,交通流对三种基础设施服务范围的影响均显著。本研究丰富并发展了极端灾害事件下城市道路网络研究体系,可用以指导非常规暴雨时期城市防洪应急处置和规划工作。

    Abstract:

    Frequent extreme precipitation events pose severe threats to cities. Road network, as thefoundation of the urban transportation system, is crucial for disaster evacuation and post-disaster re-covery. Failure and interruptions in certain nodes or sections in the road network due to precipitationcan trigger a series of cascading effects, indirectly exacerbating the loss of life and property for urbanresidents. To accurately assess the cascading failures of urban road networks and their impacts underextreme precipitation events, the study integrated traffic status with extreme precipitation scenariosand further considered the chain reactions of cascading failures. Utilizing traffic status data from bothmorning and evening peak periods, as well as off-peak periods, along with Points of Interest (POI) da-ta for transportation, medical, and educational infrastructure, the study employed a "load-capacity"model to analyze the evolution process and results of these failures in urban road networks under ex-treme precipitation events. The results indicated that during the morning peak hours, 292 roads in Nanjing's Gulou District would fail and become interrupted under a 100-year return period extreme pre-cipitation event. In the cascading failure simulation, 88 road segments exhibited severe congestion.Compared to transportation and medical infrastructure, educational infrastructure services were mostaffected by extreme precipitation. Additionally, traffic flow significantly impacted the service areas ofall three types of infrastructure. The research enriches and advances the research framework for urbanroad networks under extreme disaster events and provides guidance for urban flood emergency re-sponse and planning during non-conventional rainstorms.

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司志远,陈章利,贾玲,王鹏.极端降水事件下城市道路网络级联失效研究∗[J].防灾减灾工程学报,2024,44(4):792-799

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  • 在线发布日期:2024-09-11
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