基于信息量⁃Scoops3D联合模型的地质灾害易发性评价∗

Evaluation of the Susceptibility to Geological Hazards Based on the Information-Scoops3D Joint Model

摘要:

贵渝管道沿线地势险峻、构造活跃、雨量集中，崩滑流等地质灾害十分发育，科学开展管道沿线地质灾害的易发性评估工作对确保其安全运行至关重要。本研究在查明管道沿线自然地质环境及地质灾害分布的基础上，结合管道沿线地形地质特征、管道展布与斜坡体的相互空间位置关系划分了 101 段适合管道工程特点的评价单元，基于信息量数理统计模型与 Scoops3D 物理力学模型对管道沿线地质灾害的易发性进行了评价。评价结果表明管道沿线地质灾害的高易发区主要集中在遵义及桐梓县附近，其中 7 段处于极高易发区，26 段处于高易发区，20 段处于中易发区，30 段处于低易发区，18 段处于极低易发区。通过 ROC 曲线分别求得信息量、Scoops3D 以及二者联合模型的 AUC 值分别为 0.796、0.683 和 0.803，结果表明信息量-Scoops3D 联合模型的评价准确性最高。

Abstract:

The terrain along the Guizhou-Chongqing Pipeline is rugged, the geological structure is active, and the rainfall is concentrated, leading to the development of geological hazards such as landslides and debris flows.. Scientific assessment of the susceptibility to geological hazards along the pipeline is crucial for ensuring operational safety. Based on the investigation of the natural geological environment and disaster distribution along the pipeline, this study divided the pipeline route into 101 evaluation units. These units were determined by considering the terrain, geological characteristics, spatial relationship between the pipeline and the slopes. The susceptibility to geological hazards along the pipeline was evaluated using an information value statistical model and the Scoops3D physical mechanics model. The results indicated high-risk areas of geological disasters were concentrated in the vicinity of Zunyi and Tongzi counties. Among the evaluated sections, 7 were in extremely high-risk areas, 26 in high-risk areas, 20 in medium-risk areas, 30 in low-risk areas, and 18 in the very low-risk areas. The AUC values of the information model, the Scoops3D model and their combined model, determined using ROC curves, were 0.796, 0.683 and 0.803, respectively, indicating that the informationScoops3D joint model had the highest evaluation accuracy.