阿汝冰崩-碎屑流运动过程反演及预测模拟研究
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(1.四川省自然资源勘察设计集团有限公司,四川成都 610051;2.成都理工大学地质灾害防治与地质环境保护国家重点实验室,四川成都 610059)

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Inversion and Prediction Simulation Study of AruIce Avalanche-Debris Flow Motion Process
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(1.Sichuan Natural Resources Geological Survey and Design Group Co., Ltd., Chengdu 610051, China; 2.State Key Laboratory of Geohazard Prevention and Geoenvironment Protection, Chengdu University of Technology, Chengdu610059, China)

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    摘要:

    冰崩作为冰冻圈最具灾难性的地质灾害之一,具有运动过程复杂、预测难度高、致灾后果严重等特点。2016年7月17日和9月21日在西藏阿里地区发生了两起巨型冰崩-碎屑流事件,对当地居民生命财产安全以及生态环境造成了严重危害,利用PFC3D反演了这两次冰崩-碎屑流运动过程,在此基础上对周边区域潜在冰崩隐患进行了预测模拟研究。结果表明:(1)两次冰崩-碎屑流运动时间分别为300s和240s,颗粒平均速度峰值分别为32.05m/s和34.80m/s,第一次冰崩入湖体积约为8.47×106m3;(2)前后部分的能量传递是冰崩-碎屑流产生高速远程运动的关键机制;(3)预测阿汝85号冰川(冰崩隐患)发生冰崩后形成的西北侧主堆积区面积约为1.1km2,东北侧小堆积区面积约为0.3km2,危险区面积共计3.28km2;该成果对于青藏高原的冰崩防灾减灾工作具有一定科学价值和现实意义。

    Abstract:

    As one of the most disastrous geological disasters in the cryosphere, ice avalanche has the characteristics of complex movement process, high difficulty in prediction and serious disaster consequences. On July 17 and September 21, 2016, two giant ice avalanche-debris flow events occurred in Ali Prefecture, Tibet, which caused serious harm to the life and property safety of local residents and the ecological environment, so PFC3D was used to invert the two ice avalanche-debris flow motion processes, and on this basis, the potential ice avalanche-debris flow danger in the surrounding area were simulated and predicted. The results showed that: (1) the movement time of the two ice avalanche-debris flows was 300s and 240s, the peak average velocity of particles was 32.05m/s and 34.80m/s, respectively, and the volume of the first ice avalanche into the lake was about 8.47×106m3. (2) The energy transfer at the front and rear is the key mechanism for high-speed long-range movement of ice avalanche-debris flow; (3) It is predicted that the area of the main accumulation area on the northwest side is about 1.1km2, the area of the small accumulation area on the northeast side is about 0.3km2, and the total area of the danger area is 3.28km2 after the ice avalanche of the Aru 85 glacier(hidden danger of ice avalanche), which has certain scientific value and practical significance for the ice avalanche disaster prevention and mitigation work on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau.

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李扬,汤明高,帅奕垚,赵欢乐,李超瑞,倪文涛,李广.阿汝冰崩-碎屑流运动过程反演及预测模拟研究[J].防灾减灾工程学报,,():

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  • 在线发布日期:2023-12-14
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