基于高维Gumbel Copula参数拟合估计的大型相依失效生命线网络地震动力可靠度计算

Dynamic Reliability Calculation of Large‑Sized Interdependent Lifeline Networks Based on Fitting Estimation of High‑Dimensional Gumbel Copula Parameters

摘要:

城市生命线网络的地震动力可靠度是生命线工程地震风险和抗震韧性评估的重要指标。城市生命线网络地震动力可靠度的计算方法包括以蒙特卡洛方法为代表的模拟方法和以推广的递推分解算法为代表的非模拟方法， 因为后者能够给出生命线网络的主要失效模式，因而它比模拟方法更为先进。但是，由于存在高维 Gumbel Copula 参数无法估计的问题，目前推广的递推分解算法还不能计算大型生命线网络(组成生命线网络系统的结构或设备数目大于 60)的地震动力可靠度。为解决这个问题，提出了高维 Gumbel Copula 参数的拟合估计公式，将其嵌入推广的递推分解算法，形成了大型生命线网络地震动力可靠度的计算方法。某实际 220 kV 变电站设备网络地震动力可靠度的计算和分析，说明了此方法的使用过程、适用范围和有效性。

Abstract:

Seismic dynamic reliability of urban lifeline networks is an important index for evaluating the seismic risk and resilience of lifeline engineering. The calculation methods include the simulation method represented by the Monte Carlo method and the non-simulation method represented by the ex- tended recursive decomposition algorithm. The latter is more advanced because it can give the main failure mode of the lifeline networks. However， due to the problem that high-dimensional Gumbel Copula parameters cannot be estimated， the current extended recursive decomposition algorithm can- not calculate the seismic dynamic reliability of large lifeline networks (the number of structures or equipment constituting the lifeline network is more than 60). To solve this problem， a fitting formula for high-dimensional Gumbel Copula parameters estimation is proposed and embedded into the extend-ed recursive decomposition algorithm to form a calculation method for seismic dynamic reliability of large lifeline networks. The calculation and analysis of seismic dynamic reliability of a practical 220 kV substation equipment network show the application process， suitability and effectiveness of this meth- od.